Should Arctic become open to cooperation (inclusivity) or closed (exclusivity)?
We used sentence embeddings to measure the extent to which expert and news texts promote narratives of cooperation with foreign states in the Russian Arctic (inclusivity) versus narratives emphasizing isolation and the construction of the Arctic as a closed territory of Russia’s national interests (exclusivity).
We first compiled keyword lists representing exclusivity (e.g., military bases, confrontation, foreign influence, tense relations) and inclusivity (e.g., cooperation, joint enterprises, investment, governance, international regimes).
Next, we calculated an average vector for each group of keywords (one for inclusivity and one for exclusivity). We then measured the cosine similarity between each text in the corpus and these two vectors, and calculated the difference between the two similarity scores.
Based on these results, we manually selected approximately 50 representative texts that clearly reflected either inclusivity or exclusivity discourse. Using these texts, we recalculated refined average vectors for both categories. Finally, we compared all texts in the corpus with these updated vectors to measure how the level of inclusivity in news and expert narratives changed over time.
本研究では、文埋め込み(Sentence Embeddings) を用いて、ロシア北極圏における外国との協力を強調する言説(包摂性:inclusivity)と、地域の孤立化やロシアの国家利益に基づく閉鎖的空間としての北極を強調する言説(排他性:exclusivity)が、専門家およびニュース記事の中でどの程度促進されているかを測定した。
まず、排他性(例:軍事基地、対立、外国の影響、緊張した関係など)および 包摂性(例:協力、共同事業、投資、ガバナンス、国際レジームなど)を示すキーワードのリストを作成した。
次に、それぞれのキーワード群について平均ベクトル(包摂性ベクトルと排他性ベクトル)を計算した。その後、コーパス内の各テキストとこれら2つのベクトルとのコサイン類似度を算出し、両者の差を測定した。
さらに、この結果に基づいて、包摂的言説または排他的言説を明確に示す約50件の実際のテキストを手動で選定した。これらのテキストを用いて、包摂性および排他性の新たな平均ベクトルを再計算した。最後に、更新されたベクトルとコーパス内の全テキストを比較し、ニュースおよび専門家言説における包摂性の変化を分析した。
Exclusivity sample keywords:
"арктическая держава",
"суверенитет",
"территориальная целостность",
"исключительные права",
"неарктическая страна",
"неарктическое государство",
"территориальные притязания",
"нарастание соперничества",
"рост напряжённости",
"геополитические амбиции",
"арктические амбиции",
"внерегиональный игрок",
"старший партнёр"
Inclusivity sample keywords:
"поворот на Восток",
"азиатская арктическая страна",
"общемировое достояние",
"триполярное государство",
"приарктическая страна",
"приарктическое государство",
"многовекторный",
"многовекторная политика",
"расширение круга партнеров",
"коллективные механизмы взаимодействия",
"присутствие (в Арктике)",
"стратегический партнёр",
"стратегическое партнерство",
"диверсификация",
"новый партнёр",
"альтернативы",
"вовлечение",
"инклюзивность",
"совместный рабочий орган"
Exclusivity sample keywords:
"Arctic power,"
"sovereignty,"
"territorial integrity,"
"exclusive rights,"
"non-Arctic country,"
"non-Arctic state,"
"territorial claims,"
"growing rivalry,"
"rising tensions,"
"geopolitical ambitions,"
"Arctic ambitions,"
"extra-regional player,"
"senior partner"
Inclusivity sample keywords:
"pivot to the East,"
"Asian Arctic country,"
"global commons,"
"tripolar state,"
"near-Arctic country,"
"near-Arctic state,"
"multi-vector,"
"multi-vector policy,"
"expanding the circle of partners,"
"collective mechanisms of interaction,"
"presence (in the Arctic),"
"strategic partner,"
"strategic partnership,"
"diversification,"
"new partner,"
"alternatives,"
"engagement,"
"inclusiveness,"
"joint working body"
Since 2019, expert narratives have demonstrated a steady growth in inclusivity-oriented discourse, reaching a plateau around 2025. This trend persisted despite the conflict in Ukraine and the deterioration of Russia–West relations.We interpret this as a shift in Russian international relations expert discourse from predominantly neorealist perspectives toward a more neoliberal orientation, emphasizing cooperation. Although cooperation with Western countries declined, it was increasingly replaced by Asia-centered cooperation.
General news media demonstrated a similar trend until 2022, and their narratives were relatively more inclusive. However, after 2022, following the broader governmental and societal agenda, this trend began to decline. Despite official aspirations for cooperation with Asian partners in the Arctic, the news space became increasingly dominated by a negative news agenda.
2019年以降、専門家の言説では包摂的(inclusivity)なナラティブが着実に増加し、2025年頃にはその傾向がプラトー(横ばい状態)に達したとみられる。この傾向は、ウクライナ戦争およびロシアと西側諸国との関係悪化にもかかわらず維持された。本研究では、この変化をロシアの国際関係専門家の言説が、従来のネオリアリズム的視点から、協力をより重視するネオリベラル的立場へと部分的にシフトした結果として解釈する。西側諸国との協力は減少したものの、その代替としてアジア中心の協力が強調されるようになった。
一般ニュースメディアも2022年までは同様の傾向を示し、比較的包摂的なナラティブが見られた。しかし、2022年以降は政府および社会全体のアジェンダに沿う形で、この傾向は減少に転じた。北極におけるアジア諸国との協力が公式には強調されているにもかかわらず、ニュース空間は次第に否定的なニュースアジェンダによって占められるようになった。